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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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68–25 on winners spread MAE 8.7 93 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +6.4 163.5 70% 85–84 ✗
Murray State @ Bradley +6.0 136.2 72% 62–70 ✓
Dayton @ VCU +10.0 138.2 81% 79–76 ✗
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +1.7 143.2 58% 64–63 ✗
Ohio @ Toledo +0.2 157.1 61% 82–96 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan +11.3 145.7 84% 83–81 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +11.8 143.7 87% 70–76 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +17.5 159.9 90% 70–88 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +6.7 138.1 83% 62–73 ✓
Purdue @ Illinois +5.2 160.5 73% 80–88 ✓
Little Rock @ Southeast Missouri State +2.5 136.1 62% 59–78 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +2.4 155.6 68% 79–88 ✓
South Florida @ Memphis +13.3 153.3 87% 68–84 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland -1.2 153.9 47% 86–73 ✓
Old Dominion @ App State +8.0 129.9 73% 61–56 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +8.8 151.2 81% 85–69 ✗
Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa +9.1 138.1 80% 64–63 ✗
UNLV @ New Mexico +10.5 144.1 85% 67–81 ✓
Colorado State @ Boise State +5.6 138.1 70% 83–73 ✗
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville +1.6 142.4 58% 69–71 ✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +8.6 143.7 80% 74–100 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette +3.2 142.7 64% 86–84 ✗
Kentucky @ Missouri +1.5 165.5 61% 91–83 ✗
Mississippi State @ Arkansas +0.6 151.2 59% 92–93 ✓
Elon @ Drexel +0.8 133.0 59% 74–91 ✓
Mercer @ Chattanooga +9.5 150.4 83% 61–76 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +5.6 133.6 68% 71–68 ✗
Radford @ High Point +7.6 138.7 78% 73–76 ✓
NC State @ Miami -1.9 147.1 38% 70–72 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Georgia +5.9 150.6 73% 68–79 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Massachusetts +0.4 147.8 55% 74–51 ✗
Penn State @ Wisconsin +11.5 154.4 84% 86–75 ✗
Iowa State @ Kansas State -3.4 139.9 28% 73–57 ✓
South Carolina @ Tennessee +14.5 137.6 88% 65–75 ✓
Stanford @ Louisville +9.9 145.6 86% 48–68 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +10.3 137.9 85% 72–76 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +5.6 156.8 73% 67–86 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Davidson +0.3 132.6 49% 64–61 ✗
Columbia @ Cornell +11.8 162.1 86% 81–100 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Princeton +10.0 146.7 85% 71–95 ✓
Yale @ Brown -7.5 144.7 25% 70–61 ✓
Dartmouth @ Harvard +0.2 142.9 58% 58–66 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul -1.6 144.4 44% 77–83 ✗
Niagara @ Rider +3.0 135.1 60% 76–77 ✓
Canisius @ Saint Peter's +9.5 134.2 86% 62–70 ✓
Siena @ Manhattan +4.2 149.6 75% 66–78 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest +6.6 143.6 77% 43–69 ✓
Alabama @ Auburn +8.4 180.2 70% 93–91 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +11.7 140.3 84% 64–57 ✗
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville -1.4 157.8 44% 86–67 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -7.6 144.6 27% 74–81 ✗
Seton Hall @ UConn +15.7 133.4 89% 50–81 ✓
Delaware @ Campbell +3.4 143.1 67% 79–62 ✗
Northwestern @ Maryland +10.1 139.7 84% 61–74 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +13.3 135.4 88% 57–64 ✓
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State -3.4 138.5 41% 67–78 ✗
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech +4.7 141.0 70% 58–76 ✓
Liberty @ Western Kentucky -1.5 140.8 45% 90–61 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +9.0 143.6 83% 56–78 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State +3.7 139.5 67% 74–70 ✗
Belmont @ Drake +8.0 123.8 79% 50–57 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -13.4 131.1 12% 66–62 ✓
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston +0.2 139.8 49% 69–76 ✓
Ohio State @ Indiana +1.1 149.0 62% 60–66 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU -5.2 140.9 25% 66–52 ✓
UMBC @ Bryant +11.4 161.2 88% 74–85 ✓
TCU @ Colorado +1.4 136.1 55% 56–76 ✓
SMU @ Florida State -2.4 151.2 43% 69–76 ✗
California @ Notre Dame +3.3 143.6 67% 110–112 ✓
Air Force @ Utah State +20.6 142.1 90% 47–87 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian -5.3 139.8 30% 81–82 ✗
Marist @ Mount St. Mary's +2.4 132.3 68% 52–62 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Iona +3.7 145.3 70% 88–90 ✓
Providence @ Xavier +9.9 147.7 86% 68–76 ✓
Arizona @ Kansas +1.9 151.9 59% 76–83 ✓
UCF @ West Virginia +6.1 147.8 76% 65–72 ✓
Fresno State @ San José State +5.5 149.7 75% 68–92 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M -4.8 143.3 26% 80–68 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +5.1 141.4 75% 75–76 ✓
Ole Miss @ Florida +12.3 155.6 87% 71–90 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Clemson +15.0 139.0 89% 47–65 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern +0.3 131.5 52% 70–65 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Maine +3.0 143.5 64% 64–72 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State -1.0 134.0 51% 72–60 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +11.2 140.8 85% 65–70 ✓
Boston College @ Pittsburgh +12.9 142.5 86% 67–93 ✓
George Mason @ Richmond -6.0 129.4 27% 64–60 ✓
Butler @ Creighton +8.8 148.8 83% 74–87 ✓
Marshall @ Arkansas State +7.8 146.2 80% 74–77 ✓
Alabama State @ Grambling -0.5 133.3 36% 59–47 ✓
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -6.9 138.7 19% 65–63 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +12.9 142.1 87% 57–71 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina -7.1 153.4 20% 82–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.