Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | OKST +140 CIN -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -5.2 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -2.7 (+13.7) | 138.6 (+6.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -3.4 (+14.4) | 138.5 (+6.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -3.5 (+14.5) | 139.8 (+5.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -3.0 (+14.0) | 140.3 (+4.7) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CIN 91 – 68 OKST |
| Mar 11, 2025 | CIN 87 – 68 OKST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | OKST 80 – 76 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#103) | 12.5 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#92) | 1.59 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#87) | 2.06 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#187) | 0.544 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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