Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | KU -195 ARIZ +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +7 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | KU -1.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -2.6 (+4.4) | 153.0 (+6.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -1.9 (+5.1) | 151.9 (+7.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -2.0 (+5.0) | 150.6 (+8.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -2.4 (+4.6) | 153.0 (+6.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ARIZ 84 – 61 KU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | KU 82 – 78 ARIZ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ARIZ 88 – 77 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#19) | 19.5 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#36) | 2.55 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#36) | 3.40 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#22) | 0.586 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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