Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LT -215 UTEP +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +18 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LT -4.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -4.9 (+13.1) | 140.9 (-6.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -4.7 (+13.3) | 141.0 (-7.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -4.7 (+13.3) | 141.5 (-7.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -4.3 (+13.7) | 142.8 (-8.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | LT 69 – 59 UTEP |
| Dec 30, 2025 | LT 75 – 63 UTEP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | UTEP 70 – 60 LT |
| Feb 23, 2024 | LT 65 – 59 UTEP |
| Jan 26, 2024 | LT 68 – 54 UTEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#131) | 0.6 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#115) | 0.36 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#108) | 0.21 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#100) | 0.516 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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