Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | LT -148 UTEP +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | LT -2.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -1.8 (+10.2) | 128.9 (+9.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -2.4 (+9.6) | 130.0 (+8.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -1.6 (+10.4) | 125.5 (+12.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -1.6 (+10.4) | 127.3 (+10.7) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | LT 69 – 59 UTEP |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LT 76 – 58 UTEP |
| Jan 3, 2025 | UTEP 70 – 60 LT |
| Feb 23, 2024 | LT 65 – 59 UTEP |
| Jan 26, 2024 | LT 68 – 54 UTEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#239) | -3.4 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#240) | -1.84 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#257) | -1.14 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#261) | 0.453 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 23.3% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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