Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | FSU +130 SMU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -2.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.4 (+9.4) | 151.2 (-6.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.5 (+8.5) | 151.3 (-6.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -1.8 (+8.8) | 154.0 (-9.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -1.4 (+8.4) | 152.7 (-7.7) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FSU 91 – 78 SMU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SMU 83 – 80 FSU |
| Dec 17, 2023 | SMU 68 – 57 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 13-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#88) | 12.5 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#106) | 1.93 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#99) | 2.26 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#147) | 0.569 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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