Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -122 SMU +102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +13 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -3.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -1.3 (+14.3) | 161.5 (+7.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.0 (+14.0) | 158.2 (+10.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -1.1 (+14.1) | 158.0 (+11.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -2.5 (+15.5) | 159.4 (+9.6) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SMU 83 – 80 FSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | FSU 76 – 69 SMU |
| Dec 17, 2023 | SMU 68 – 57 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 84.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#75) | 14.7 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#67) | 2.05 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#70) | 2.77 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#88) | 0.583 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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