Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -175 SMU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +11 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -2.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -0.1 (-11.1) | 140.0 (-15.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -2.5 (-13.5) | 139.1 (-14.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -2.4 (-13.4) | 139.3 (-14.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -1.9 (-12.9) | 140.4 (-15.4) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FSU 91 – 78 SMU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SMU 83 – 80 FSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | FSU 76 – 69 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#92) | 7.5 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#150) | 0.26 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#147) | 0.70 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#82) | 0.504 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.