Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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66–27 on winners spread MAE 8.6 93 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +7.5 164.9 76% 85–84 ✗
Murray State @ Bradley +5.3 138.2 74% 62–70 ✓
Dayton @ VCU +10.7 139.4 82% 79–76 ✗
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +2.2 142.6 64% 64–63 ✗
Ohio @ Toledo -0.4 159.8 50% 82–96 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan +12.4 143.4 87% 83–81 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +10.6 143.9 87% 70–76 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +15.0 157.9 90% 70–88 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +8.7 138.9 82% 62–73 ✓
Purdue @ Illinois +5.1 160.6 68% 80–88 ✓
Little Rock @ Southeast Missouri State +3.6 137.4 67% 59–78 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +2.9 157.5 65% 79–88 ✓
South Florida @ Memphis +14.6 150.4 88% 68–84 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland +0.4 152.2 52% 86–73 ✗
Old Dominion @ App State +6.7 126.8 74% 61–56 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +9.1 153.5 83% 85–69 ✗
Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa +8.5 138.6 80% 64–63 ✗
UNLV @ New Mexico +10.2 144.9 84% 67–81 ✓
Colorado State @ Boise State +5.9 139.6 70% 83–73 ✗
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville +1.3 141.1 55% 69–71 ✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +10.0 143.6 83% 74–100 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette +2.2 144.0 60% 86–84 ✗
Kentucky @ Missouri +3.0 170.3 64% 91–83 ✗
Mississippi State @ Arkansas +2.7 149.6 65% 92–93 ✓
Elon @ Drexel -0.5 130.0 52% 74–91 ✗
Mercer @ Chattanooga +9.8 149.1 84% 61–76 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +5.0 133.2 69% 71–68 ✗
Radford @ High Point +7.6 141.3 79% 73–76 ✓
NC State @ Miami -2.4 149.6 42% 70–72 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Georgia +5.7 151.3 73% 68–79 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Massachusetts -0.5 147.7 49% 74–51 ✓
Penn State @ Wisconsin +10.5 153.9 85% 86–75 ✗
Iowa State @ Kansas State -3.2 139.9 36% 73–57 ✓
South Carolina @ Tennessee +15.0 135.6 87% 65–75 ✓
Stanford @ Louisville +12.5 144.5 87% 48–68 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +11.7 134.2 85% 72–76 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +8.2 155.5 79% 67–86 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Davidson +1.0 132.9 50% 64–61 ✗
Columbia @ Cornell +11.1 164.6 86% 81–100 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Princeton +8.5 146.4 80% 71–95 ✓
Yale @ Brown -5.8 145.3 31% 70–61 ✓
Dartmouth @ Harvard -1.5 139.9 47% 58–66 ✗
Georgetown @ DePaul +0.3 143.2 53% 77–83 ✓
Niagara @ Rider +2.9 137.3 65% 76–77 ✓
Canisius @ Saint Peter's +9.9 133.3 86% 62–70 ✓
Siena @ Manhattan +3.0 150.3 65% 66–78 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest +7.1 143.1 75% 43–69 ✓
Alabama @ Auburn +8.9 177.5 79% 93–91 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +8.7 137.2 82% 64–57 ✗
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville -1.6 158.5 43% 86–67 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -6.5 143.7 27% 74–81 ✗
Seton Hall @ UConn +17.2 135.1 90% 50–81 ✓
Delaware @ Campbell +2.9 144.7 61% 79–62 ✗
Northwestern @ Maryland +11.3 139.1 86% 61–74 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +12.3 132.9 87% 57–64 ✓
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State -2.7 138.6 37% 67–78 ✗
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech +4.7 141.5 72% 58–76 ✓
Liberty @ Western Kentucky -2.1 137.8 41% 90–61 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +10.3 143.2 85% 56–78 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State +4.6 140.0 70% 74–70 ✗
Belmont @ Drake +7.3 130.1 78% 50–57 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -15.0 132.1 13% 66–62 ✓
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston -0.3 138.2 47% 69–76 ✗
Ohio State @ Indiana +2.1 147.8 60% 60–66 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU -3.8 141.3 33% 66–52 ✓
UMBC @ Bryant +11.6 159.5 88% 74–85 ✓
TCU @ Colorado +1.4 133.2 54% 56–76 ✓
SMU @ Florida State -1.5 151.3 45% 69–76 ✗
California @ Notre Dame +5.4 144.7 70% 110–112 ✓
Air Force @ Utah State +20.3 146.5 90% 47–87 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian -5.1 139.6 29% 81–82 ✗
Marist @ Mount St. Mary's +2.7 131.6 62% 52–62 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Iona +2.6 144.7 64% 88–90 ✓
Providence @ Xavier +12.5 148.0 87% 68–76 ✓
Arizona @ Kansas +2.6 153.0 62% 76–83 ✓
UCF @ West Virginia +7.6 143.4 78% 65–72 ✓
Fresno State @ San José State +6.8 147.0 75% 68–92 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M -7.1 139.8 23% 80–68 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +4.4 140.2 69% 75–76 ✓
Ole Miss @ Florida +12.3 158.0 86% 71–90 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Clemson +17.5 140.1 90% 47–65 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern -0.7 132.9 51% 70–65 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Maine +3.7 145.0 67% 64–72 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State -1.0 134.5 50% 72–60 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +9.5 142.3 85% 65–70 ✓
Boston College @ Pittsburgh +12.8 142.5 87% 67–93 ✓
George Mason @ Richmond -7.0 131.2 22% 64–60 ✓
Butler @ Creighton +9.2 147.4 82% 74–87 ✓
Marshall @ Arkansas State +8.3 144.7 79% 74–77 ✓
Alabama State @ Grambling -1.3 130.7 43% 59–47 ✓
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -5.9 140.8 22% 65–63 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +13.6 139.8 88% 57–71 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina -8.2 153.9 21% 82–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.