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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–12 on winners spread MAE 9.0 59 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Kansas City @ Omaha	+3.2	138.3	68%	61–70	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell	+9.4	143.4	81%	72–76	✓
Lafayette @ American University	+4.6	130.7	69%	69–71	✓
Navy @ Boston University	+0.6	132.4	56%	86–78	✗
Army @ Colgate	+5.0	146.3	69%	55–84	✓
UT Martin @ Little Rock	+3.1	134.5	64%	77–82	✓
Evansville @ Murray State	+5.3	131.8	71%	53–74	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State	+1.6	151.4	57%	67–72	✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama	+7.5	141.6	77%	63–78	✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's	+4.0	130.1	64%	78–68	✗
Tulane @ East Carolina	+2.8	146.5	65%	64–73	✓
Florida Atlantic @ UAB	+4.0	158.6	69%	80–89	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac	+4.5	146.1	70%	70–79	✓
Sacred Heart @ Manhattan	+3.1	151.8	66%	74–90	✓
Merrimack @ Marist	+0.6	123.0	51%	75–53	✗
Canisius @ Rider	+8.6	142.1	80%	50–78	✓
Fairfield @ Siena	+9.8	140.9	83%	64–68	✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State	+11.4	149.5	85%	71–87	✓
Norfolk State @ Howard	-4.2	151.9	30%	81–69	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State	+10.4	146.0	86%	68–75	✓
UTEP @ Sam Houston	+0.7	146.2	54%	87–89	✓
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech	+2.5	131.0	63%	67–55	✗
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee	+0.3	138.6	51%	86–81	✗
Michigan State @ Iowa	-6.3	148.9	25%	91–84	✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee	+6.6	145.4	77%	72–64	✗
Wright State @ Robert Morris	+7.1	149.0	78%	62–83	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State	+4.3	136.4	67%	63–68	✓
Queens University @ Lipscomb	+12.5	145.2	87%	75–81	✓
Wichita State @ Rice	+0.1	145.3	49%	63–59	✗
Morgan State @ Coppin State	-3.0	146.1	36%	75–82	✗
Jackson State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-11.0	148.8	15%	76–69	✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian	-2.6	136.3	36%	73–60	✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky	+8.3	141.4	80%	67–76	✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State	+6.5	142.2	76%	64–61	✗
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State	-14.1	128.8	13%	72–64	✓
Seattle U @ Southern Utah	-4.5	137.5	33%	62–39	✓
Charlotte @ North Texas	+13.7	129.8	87%	64–75	✓
Alabama State @ Southern	+5.1	136.6	69%	66–65	✗
UC Irvine @ UC Davis	-8.6	132.5	20%	88–59	✓
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon	+13.8	146.8	88%	68–90	✓
Denver @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+10.1	144.6	84%	62–80	✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State	+3.5	144.6	63%	55–69	✓
Valparaiso @ UIC	+2.9	146.2	63%	67–50	✗
Alabama A&M @ Grambling	+7.6	134.7	78%	51–67	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield	+1.5	139.3	58%	64–76	✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Riverside	+1.2	156.8	58%	79–94	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly	+13.0	159.1	88%	61–100	✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego	+21.4	140.4	91%	63–70	✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist	+9.5	130.2	83%	48–68	✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point	+12.7	149.6	87%	64–85	✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake	+10.3	128.2	86%	53–70	✓
Stony Brook @ Delaware	+4.7	146.5	69%	76–80	✓
Presbyterian @ Radford	+3.8	132.5	70%	69–74	✓
Illinois State @ Belmont	-0.2	149.6	52%	63–76	✗
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra	+7.7	127.3	79%	55–77	✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer	+8.4	145.2	80%	66–67	✓
Georgia State @ Marshall	+6.1	144.8	75%	76–79	✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville	+6.5	145.8	74%	60–80	✓
Ball State @ Miami (OH)	+8.9	148.7	82%	66–79	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.