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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
24–8 on winners
spread MAE 7.7
32 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+2.9 | 175.2 | 60% | 99–94 | ✗ |
|
|
-13.5 | 138.8 | 14% | 78–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 140.3 | 48% | 70–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 130.8 | 86% | 57–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 130.5 | 64% | 55–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 139.5 | 59% | 56–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.9 | 143.4 | 88% | 67–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 158.7 | 72% | 70–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 131.3 | 70% | 54–49 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.6 | 142.4 | 38% | 63–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.1 | 148.4 | 81% | 74–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 135.1 | 81% | 72–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 131.8 | 86% | 62–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 143.2 | 40% | 81–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 150.6 | 46% | 91–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 153.6 | 79% | 63–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 143.5 | 88% | 75–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 161.5 | 44% | 84–96 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.2 | 133.4 | 71% | 56–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 138.1 | 25% | 74–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 143.1 | 57% | 66–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 134.5 | 51% | 49–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 137.3 | 43% | 76–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.0 | 151.3 | 89% | 68–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 142.0 | 58% | 54–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 141.7 | 69% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 132.3 | 52% | 65–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.4 | 151.1 | 76% | 61–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.0 | 154.7 | 52% | 85–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 135.8 | 74% | 54–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 143.4 | 57% | 81–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.9 | 148.6 | 45% | 71–80 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.