Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -1600 CAL +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -16.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -11.6 (+5.4) | 152.6 (+0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -15.0 (+2.0) | 151.3 (+1.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -15.3 (+1.7) | 151.9 (+1.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -15.4 (+1.6) | 151.2 (+1.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | LOU 90 – 70 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 9-2 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#23) | 3.4 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#20) | 0.30 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#22) | 0.49 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#18) | 0.488 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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