Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +260 LOU -325 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +20 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -7.1 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -5.5 (-14.5) | 154.3 (+5.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -3.5 (-16.5) | 148.7 (+11.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -4.2 (-15.8) | 151.8 (+8.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -3.3 (-16.7) | 154.7 (+5.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | LOU 85 – 68 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#57) | 21.4 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#29) | 2.38 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.66 (#30) | 3.45 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#55) | 0.590 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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