Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ND +105 STAN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +2 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | ND -2.0 (-0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-34.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -0.3 (+1.7) | 139.1 (-29.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -1.3 (+0.7) | 142.0 (-32.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -1.0 (+1.0) | 142.4 (-32.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -0.5 (+1.5) | 142.6 (-32.6) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | STAN 86 – 78 ND |
| Dec 31, 2025 | ND 47 – 40 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 17-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#93) | 6.7 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#154) | 1.50 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#121) | 1.47 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#188) | 0.559 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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