Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -310 ND +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +7 | 87 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -2.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-66.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -3.6 (-10.6) | 143.2 (-56.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -3.6 (-10.6) | 146.6 (-59.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -3.1 (-10.1) | 146.2 (-59.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -3.0 (-10.0) | 145.8 (-58.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | STAN 86 – 78 ND |
| Mar 6, 2025 | ND 56 – 54 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#90) | 8.4 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#57) | 1.37 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#64) | 2.04 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#57) | 0.558 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.8% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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