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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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66–27 on winners spread MAE 8.7 93 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +7.4 163.4 78% 85–84 ✗
Murray State @ Bradley +5.8 138.8 74% 62–70 ✓
Dayton @ VCU +10.1 140.8 82% 79–76 ✗
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +2.3 142.9 66% 64–63 ✗
Ohio @ Toledo -0.8 159.8 52% 82–96 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan +12.0 144.7 87% 83–81 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +11.7 146.4 86% 70–76 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +16.3 160.0 90% 70–88 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +8.2 140.2 85% 62–73 ✓
Purdue @ Illinois +3.9 158.5 77% 80–88 ✓
Little Rock @ Southeast Missouri State +3.6 138.1 67% 59–78 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +3.6 156.8 67% 79–88 ✓
South Florida @ Memphis +15.1 152.7 88% 68–84 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland -0.4 152.2 54% 86–73 ✓
Old Dominion @ App State +6.5 125.6 74% 61–56 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +9.7 153.6 82% 85–69 ✗
Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa +8.2 138.3 79% 64–63 ✗
UNLV @ New Mexico +9.5 146.5 84% 67–81 ✓
Colorado State @ Boise State +5.8 138.9 69% 83–73 ✗
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville +1.7 140.5 54% 69–71 ✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +8.2 144.6 84% 74–100 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette +3.0 143.0 61% 86–84 ✗
Kentucky @ Missouri +2.3 168.3 62% 91–83 ✗
Mississippi State @ Arkansas +2.9 151.9 69% 92–93 ✓
Elon @ Drexel -0.7 130.0 51% 74–91 ✗
Mercer @ Chattanooga +9.4 150.7 84% 61–76 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +5.3 134.3 66% 71–68 ✗
Radford @ High Point +6.6 141.3 78% 73–76 ✓
NC State @ Miami -2.3 150.6 40% 70–72 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Georgia +6.2 152.5 77% 68–79 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Massachusetts -0.6 147.9 48% 74–51 ✓
Penn State @ Wisconsin +10.5 153.3 85% 86–75 ✗
Iowa State @ Kansas State -3.9 139.7 38% 73–57 ✓
South Carolina @ Tennessee +15.7 135.7 87% 65–75 ✓
Stanford @ Louisville +11.8 144.6 88% 48–68 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +10.3 134.7 85% 72–76 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +7.8 156.8 82% 67–86 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Davidson +0.1 134.2 49% 64–61 ✗
Columbia @ Cornell +11.3 164.2 86% 81–100 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Princeton +7.2 146.1 80% 71–95 ✓
Yale @ Brown -5.6 146.6 30% 70–61 ✓
Dartmouth @ Harvard -0.4 141.4 47% 58–66 ✗
Georgetown @ DePaul -0.0 145.4 52% 77–83 ✗
Niagara @ Rider +2.9 137.2 69% 76–77 ✓
Canisius @ Saint Peter's +9.9 134.3 86% 62–70 ✓
Siena @ Manhattan +2.5 151.2 67% 66–78 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest +6.0 144.7 77% 43–69 ✓
Alabama @ Auburn +7.6 180.8 73% 93–91 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +9.8 138.8 84% 64–57 ✗
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville -2.0 158.0 39% 86–67 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -7.7 142.9 35% 74–81 ✗
Seton Hall @ UConn +17.6 135.9 90% 50–81 ✓
Delaware @ Campbell +2.9 145.8 58% 79–62 ✗
Northwestern @ Maryland +11.0 137.7 88% 61–74 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +12.6 131.9 89% 57–64 ✓
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State -3.0 140.3 44% 67–78 ✗
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech +4.3 142.8 75% 58–76 ✓
Liberty @ Western Kentucky -2.4 137.0 39% 90–61 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +9.8 144.4 86% 56–78 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State +5.1 140.4 70% 74–70 ✗
Belmont @ Drake +6.6 132.3 78% 50–57 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -15.1 130.8 12% 66–62 ✓
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston -0.4 140.5 44% 69–76 ✗
Ohio State @ Indiana +1.7 149.1 60% 60–66 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU -3.8 142.5 35% 66–52 ✓
UMBC @ Bryant +11.8 160.9 88% 74–85 ✓
TCU @ Colorado +0.7 134.7 56% 56–76 ✓
SMU @ Florida State -1.8 154.0 46% 69–76 ✗
California @ Notre Dame +5.5 146.1 74% 110–112 ✓
Air Force @ Utah State +23.0 147.1 91% 47–87 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian -5.5 141.5 30% 81–82 ✗
Marist @ Mount St. Mary's +2.7 133.0 62% 52–62 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Iona +2.5 144.0 67% 88–90 ✓
Providence @ Xavier +11.2 149.2 88% 68–76 ✓
Arizona @ Kansas +2.4 153.0 67% 76–83 ✓
UCF @ West Virginia +8.1 143.7 78% 65–72 ✓
Fresno State @ San José State +5.6 146.7 77% 68–92 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M -5.0 141.7 21% 80–68 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +4.9 140.4 73% 75–76 ✓
Ole Miss @ Florida +11.8 156.9 85% 71–90 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Clemson +17.8 141.1 90% 47–65 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern -0.1 133.2 50% 70–65 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Maine +3.1 145.9 69% 64–72 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State -0.2 135.2 47% 72–60 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +9.3 141.7 85% 65–70 ✓
Boston College @ Pittsburgh +12.6 142.1 88% 67–93 ✓
George Mason @ Richmond -6.6 131.0 24% 64–60 ✓
Butler @ Creighton +8.5 147.8 83% 74–87 ✓
Marshall @ Arkansas State +7.5 145.7 79% 74–77 ✓
Alabama State @ Grambling -0.4 132.4 34% 59–47 ✓
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -5.8 138.8 19% 65–63 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +13.0 139.0 89% 57–71 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina -9.0 155.2 17% 82–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.