And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–11 on winners spread MAE 9.2 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas City @ Omaha +3.2 138.7 71% 61–70 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +8.3 143.5 82% 72–76 ✓
Lafayette @ American University +4.7 131.0 71% 69–71 ✓
Navy @ Boston University +0.7 133.0 55% 86–78 ✗
Army @ Colgate +4.9 147.3 73% 55–84 ✓
UT Martin @ Little Rock +3.2 135.3 65% 77–82 ✓
Evansville @ Murray State +4.5 133.5 71% 53–74 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +1.2 154.6 56% 67–72 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +6.7 142.9 81% 63–78 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +5.0 130.8 60% 78–68 ✗
Tulane @ East Carolina +2.4 148.5 66% 64–73 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UAB +4.1 159.1 70% 80–89 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac +4.4 147.8 71% 70–79 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Manhattan +2.8 152.2 66% 74–90 ✓
Merrimack @ Marist +0.7 124.6 48% 75–53 ✗
Canisius @ Rider +8.7 144.3 82% 50–78 ✓
Fairfield @ Siena +9.3 141.6 84% 64–68 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State +10.7 150.3 84% 71–87 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard -4.3 153.6 30% 81–69 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State +9.6 147.1 86% 68–75 ✓
UTEP @ Sam Houston +0.4 146.3 50% 87–89 ✓
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech +3.0 133.1 62% 67–55 ✗
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee +0.5 139.7 47% 86–81 ✗
Michigan State @ Iowa -5.4 152.6 24% 91–84 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee +6.5 147.3 79% 72–64 ✗
Wright State @ Robert Morris +6.4 149.9 80% 62–83 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +4.2 139.5 68% 63–68 ✓
Queens University @ Lipscomb +11.6 145.7 87% 75–81 ✓
Wichita State @ Rice -0.2 145.8 45% 63–59 ✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State -2.7 146.7 38% 75–82 ✗
Jackson State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -10.0 148.0 13% 76–69 ✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian -2.7 137.4 33% 73–60 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +8.2 141.9 81% 67–76 ✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State +6.4 142.3 74% 64–61 ✗
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State -13.0 126.9 11% 72–64 ✓
Seattle U @ Southern Utah -4.1 138.7 32% 62–39 ✓
Charlotte @ North Texas +15.2 130.0 87% 64–75 ✓
Alabama State @ Southern +5.3 136.9 59% 66–65 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC Davis -8.1 133.8 17% 88–59 ✓
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon +14.3 145.5 86% 68–90 ✓
Denver @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +9.8 144.5 84% 62–80 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +3.5 144.6 65% 55–69 ✓
Valparaiso @ UIC +3.2 146.0 64% 67–50 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Grambling +7.8 136.5 81% 51–67 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield +1.2 141.5 60% 64–76 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Riverside +0.7 159.6 58% 79–94 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly +14.4 161.5 89% 61–100 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +23.9 140.1 91% 63–70 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +9.2 130.7 82% 48–68 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +13.1 149.9 88% 64–85 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake +10.0 127.1 87% 53–70 ✓
Stony Brook @ Delaware +3.4 146.7 68% 76–80 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +3.8 133.7 71% 69–74 ✓
Illinois State @ Belmont -0.3 148.6 53% 63–76 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra +8.3 126.8 79% 55–77 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +8.7 144.9 80% 66–67 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +5.9 145.6 75% 76–79 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +5.6 147.0 72% 60–80 ✓
Ball State @ Miami (OH) +8.2 149.5 83% 66–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.