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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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22–10 on winners spread MAE 7.8 32 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida @ Alabama +3.4 177.6 48% 99–94 ✗
Clemson @ Boston College -12.6 140.4 14% 78–69 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech -0.8 141.7 45% 70–67 ✓
Chicago State @ Long Island University +11.8 131.8 88% 57–68 ✓
Wagner @ Saint Francis +3.9 130.3 58% 55–58 ✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson +1.6 140.8 62% 56–71 ✓
Le Moyne @ Central Connecticut +15.0 143.0 88% 67–86 ✓
Oklahoma State @ UCF +5.5 159.2 75% 70–83 ✓
Kansas State @ Cincinnati +5.8 133.6 70% 54–49 ✗
Pittsburgh @ NC State -2.9 144.1 39% 63–71 ✗
Rhode Island @ Saint Joseph's +8.5 149.2 81% 74–91 ✓
Massachusetts @ St. Bonaventure +9.6 137.4 84% 72–73 ✓
La Salle @ George Mason +11.7 133.5 86% 62–69 ✓
George Washington @ Fordham -2.4 144.4 40% 81–58 ✓
Xavier @ Butler -0.4 152.8 41% 91–78 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Gardner-Webb +8.5 153.1 81% 63–83 ✓
Colorado @ Texas Tech +15.7 141.1 89% 75–91 ✓
Missouri @ Oklahoma -1.2 159.7 49% 84–96 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City +4.4 133.8 65% 56–73 ✓
Wisconsin @ Minnesota -6.7 136.8 23% 74–67 ✓
Marquette @ UConn +1.7 143.1 64% 66–72 ✓
Louisiana @ Old Dominion -0.6 136.1 52% 49–67 ✗
Tennessee @ Ole Miss -1.7 138.6 41% 76–78 ✗
California @ Louisville +15.3 151.9 89% 68–85 ✓
Stanford @ Notre Dame +1.0 142.4 55% 54–56 ✓
Davidson @ Loyola Chicago +3.6 143.0 70% 72–82 ✓
Morehead State @ Lindenwood -0.4 133.3 52% 65–73 ✗
Washington @ USC +7.0 151.7 79% 61–92 ✓
Indiana State @ Southern Illinois -0.4 155.1 50% 85–86 ✗
Missouri State @ Illinois State +5.4 136.6 72% 54–70 ✓
San Diego @ Pacific +1.5 145.6 53% 81–77 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State -1.4 148.9 42% 71–80 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.