← All models
Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
31–12 on winners
spread MAE 7.6
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-9.7 | 157.3 | 17% | 75–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 153.9 | 88% | 71–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 159.2 | 87% | 64–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 139.9 | 54% | 73–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 142.1 | 68% | 68–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 142.3 | 83% | 75–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 150.5 | 86% | 72–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 152.4 | 87% | 74–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.1 | 150.7 | 22% | 91–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 147.1 | 76% | 67–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.4 | 134.4 | 16% | 71–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 139.5 | 76% | 75–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.3 | 135.4 | 72% | 71–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.6 | 133.6 | 17% | 79–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.6 | 150.7 | 20% | 84–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.8 | 146.7 | 26% | 77–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 153.5 | 80% | 83–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.2 | 146.5 | 50% | 69–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 142.9 | 25% | 71–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 160.0 | 33% | 96–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 155.7 | 74% | 87–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.1 | 155.3 | 81% | 85–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 140.0 | 41% | 61–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 149.3 | 41% | 81–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 140.1 | 49% | 73–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.9 | 139.0 | 69% | 69–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.7 | 149.3 | 31% | 72–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 152.9 | 78% | 88–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.2 | 137.2 | 56% | 71–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 137.7 | 66% | 57–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 157.8 | 87% | 75–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.6 | 145.2 | 89% | 56–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 148.1 | 44% | 71–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.9 | 135.0 | 12% | 80–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 148.0 | 77% | 64–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 144.5 | 75% | 114–116 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 141.8 | 49% | 58–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.2 | 152.0 | 61% | 90–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.1 | 154.1 | 88% | 100–113 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 129.3 | 50% | 67–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 143.6 | 62% | 64–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 150.4 | 57% | 71–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.5 | 145.9 | 77% | 80–77 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.