Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -135 TEM +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | TEM -3.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEM -1.9 (-2.1) | 148.2 (+9.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEM -1.3 (-2.7) | 151.1 (+6.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEM -1.6 (-2.4) | 150.4 (+7.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEM -2.0 (-2.0) | 149.3 (+8.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TLSA 78 – 76 TEM |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TLSA 75 – 71 TEM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TLSA 80 – 74 TEM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TLSA 72 – 67 TEM |
| Feb 19, 2023 | TEM 76 – 53 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-9 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#277) | -0.2 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#292) | -0.08 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#278) | -0.14 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#321) | 0.496 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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