And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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67–26 on winners spread MAE 8.6 93 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +8.7 166.3 73% 85–84 ✗
Murray State @ Bradley +4.5 137.7 73% 62–70 ✓
Dayton @ VCU +10.7 138.9 81% 79–76 ✗
Western Michigan @ Bowling Green +1.9 145.2 59% 64–63 ✗
Ohio @ Toledo -0.3 159.8 54% 82–96 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan +12.6 146.4 86% 83–81 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State +12.2 145.3 87% 70–76 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +16.5 159.3 90% 70–88 ✓
The Citadel @ VMI +8.2 138.0 84% 62–73 ✓
Purdue @ Illinois +5.0 155.7 75% 80–88 ✓
Little Rock @ Southeast Missouri State +4.2 136.8 69% 59–78 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +2.7 157.2 63% 79–88 ✓
South Florida @ Memphis +14.6 152.8 89% 68–84 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland -0.7 153.9 49% 86–73 ✓
Old Dominion @ App State +5.2 129.0 71% 61–56 ✗
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +9.9 152.3 81% 85–69 ✗
Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa +7.9 139.0 78% 64–63 ✗
UNLV @ New Mexico +9.5 145.2 83% 67–81 ✓
Colorado State @ Boise State +6.0 138.0 72% 83–73 ✗
Tennessee State @ SIU Edwardsville +1.5 141.8 60% 69–71 ✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +8.5 145.1 83% 74–100 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette +2.7 145.2 63% 86–84 ✗
Kentucky @ Missouri +2.4 164.7 54% 91–83 ✗
Mississippi State @ Arkansas +3.6 150.1 67% 92–93 ✓
Elon @ Drexel +0.2 132.7 54% 74–91 ✓
Mercer @ Chattanooga +9.2 151.2 83% 61–76 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +4.3 133.5 69% 71–68 ✗
Radford @ High Point +7.1 140.2 79% 73–76 ✓
NC State @ Miami -3.2 149.4 43% 70–72 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Georgia +6.3 151.3 74% 68–79 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Massachusetts -0.9 148.7 53% 74–51 ✓
Penn State @ Wisconsin +11.3 153.3 84% 86–75 ✗
Iowa State @ Kansas State -3.9 142.0 36% 73–57 ✓
South Carolina @ Tennessee +14.6 137.2 88% 65–75 ✓
Stanford @ Louisville +12.1 144.0 87% 48–68 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +11.0 137.3 86% 72–76 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +8.8 157.7 81% 67–86 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Davidson +0.5 134.7 47% 64–61 ✗
Columbia @ Cornell +12.7 163.4 86% 81–100 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Princeton +7.7 148.2 79% 71–95 ✓
Yale @ Brown -6.8 146.1 29% 70–61 ✓
Dartmouth @ Harvard -0.8 141.8 46% 58–66 ✗
Georgetown @ DePaul -0.4 144.7 47% 77–83 ✗
Niagara @ Rider +3.1 138.6 66% 76–77 ✓
Canisius @ Saint Peter's +10.4 133.1 87% 62–70 ✓
Siena @ Manhattan +2.4 151.0 66% 66–78 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest +5.9 145.5 78% 43–69 ✓
Alabama @ Auburn +6.9 176.6 74% 93–91 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +9.1 138.1 82% 64–57 ✗
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville -1.6 159.3 36% 86–67 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -7.3 142.7 34% 74–81 ✗
Seton Hall @ UConn +17.8 136.0 90% 50–81 ✓
Delaware @ Campbell +2.8 144.6 62% 79–62 ✗
Northwestern @ Maryland +10.9 141.4 86% 61–74 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +12.5 134.1 89% 57–64 ✓
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State -3.5 139.8 44% 67–78 ✗
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech +4.9 140.9 69% 58–76 ✓
Liberty @ Western Kentucky -2.5 140.2 44% 90–61 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +9.9 144.1 84% 56–78 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State +5.4 139.5 72% 74–70 ✗
Belmont @ Drake +7.1 127.4 79% 50–57 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -16.2 129.8 11% 66–62 ✓
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston -1.0 141.0 41% 69–76 ✗
Ohio State @ Indiana +1.4 149.4 60% 60–66 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU -3.6 143.1 36% 66–52 ✓
UMBC @ Bryant +13.6 158.5 88% 74–85 ✓
TCU @ Colorado +0.5 134.5 52% 56–76 ✓
SMU @ Florida State -1.4 152.7 48% 69–76 ✗
California @ Notre Dame +5.0 146.2 70% 110–112 ✓
Air Force @ Utah State +22.4 144.8 91% 47–87 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian -5.4 142.8 31% 81–82 ✗
Marist @ Mount St. Mary's +2.7 132.7 66% 52–62 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Iona +2.0 146.0 70% 88–90 ✓
Providence @ Xavier +12.3 148.3 88% 68–76 ✓
Arizona @ Kansas +2.0 150.6 65% 76–83 ✓
UCF @ West Virginia +7.8 148.1 78% 65–72 ✓
Fresno State @ San José State +6.3 149.1 77% 68–92 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M -5.7 141.5 23% 80–68 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +5.3 140.4 75% 75–76 ✓
Ole Miss @ Florida +13.2 155.2 86% 71–90 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Clemson +17.8 138.7 90% 47–65 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern -0.9 134.3 45% 70–65 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Maine +4.0 146.1 72% 64–72 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State -1.0 134.2 45% 72–60 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +9.1 142.9 83% 65–70 ✓
Boston College @ Pittsburgh +13.4 143.5 87% 67–93 ✓
George Mason @ Richmond -6.9 131.0 26% 64–60 ✓
Butler @ Creighton +8.5 149.7 83% 74–87 ✓
Marshall @ Arkansas State +7.7 145.5 78% 74–77 ✓
Alabama State @ Grambling -1.0 135.1 40% 59–47 ✓
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -6.2 139.0 21% 65–63 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +13.2 142.3 89% 57–71 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina -9.1 152.2 22% 82–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.