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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–11 on winners spread MAE 9.1 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas City @ Omaha +3.1 138.2 69% 61–70 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +8.0 144.7 81% 72–76 ✓
Lafayette @ American University +4.5 133.6 73% 69–71 ✓
Navy @ Boston University +0.3 133.8 55% 86–78 ✗
Army @ Colgate +4.4 148.3 76% 55–84 ✓
UT Martin @ Little Rock +2.6 135.5 64% 77–82 ✓
Evansville @ Murray State +4.7 132.7 72% 53–74 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +1.4 154.9 57% 67–72 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +6.8 141.2 78% 63–78 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +4.3 132.2 62% 78–68 ✗
Tulane @ East Carolina +2.6 147.7 68% 64–73 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UAB +3.9 162.3 70% 80–89 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac +4.9 145.1 69% 70–79 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Manhattan +3.0 153.3 69% 74–90 ✓
Merrimack @ Marist +0.5 128.6 42% 75–53 ✗
Canisius @ Rider +8.3 142.1 81% 50–78 ✓
Fairfield @ Siena +9.3 143.1 84% 64–68 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State +10.4 151.1 85% 71–87 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard -4.6 153.3 30% 81–69 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State +9.6 146.0 86% 68–75 ✓
UTEP @ Sam Houston +0.5 147.2 49% 87–89 ✓
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech +3.7 133.4 58% 67–55 ✗
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee +0.3 139.9 53% 86–81 ✗
Michigan State @ Iowa -5.5 153.2 22% 91–84 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee +6.6 146.4 79% 72–64 ✗
Wright State @ Robert Morris +7.3 151.1 82% 62–83 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +4.7 138.8 69% 63–68 ✓
Queens University @ Lipscomb +12.6 146.4 87% 75–81 ✓
Wichita State @ Rice -0.1 146.5 44% 63–59 ✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State -3.5 147.3 39% 75–82 ✗
Jackson State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -10.5 148.9 14% 76–69 ✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian -3.1 139.0 35% 73–60 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +8.4 142.8 79% 67–76 ✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State +5.7 142.9 73% 64–61 ✗
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State -14.5 128.4 11% 72–64 ✓
Seattle U @ Southern Utah -4.8 139.5 27% 62–39 ✓
Charlotte @ North Texas +14.5 129.1 87% 64–75 ✓
Alabama State @ Southern +5.0 141.0 64% 66–65 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC Davis -7.7 135.6 21% 88–59 ✓
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon +13.9 147.5 87% 68–90 ✓
Denver @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +9.5 147.5 84% 62–80 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +2.4 147.9 64% 55–69 ✓
Valparaiso @ UIC +3.2 147.6 62% 67–50 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Grambling +7.7 136.9 82% 51–67 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield +1.2 138.2 60% 64–76 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Riverside +1.1 158.3 60% 79–94 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly +15.1 157.8 88% 61–100 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +24.6 138.6 91% 63–70 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +10.8 130.4 83% 48–68 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +11.7 149.3 88% 64–85 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake +10.2 126.0 87% 53–70 ✓
Stony Brook @ Delaware +2.8 144.6 66% 76–80 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +3.7 133.8 69% 69–74 ✓
Illinois State @ Belmont -0.7 149.5 47% 63–76 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra +7.9 131.3 78% 55–77 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +8.7 147.0 81% 66–67 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +5.1 146.2 78% 76–79 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +5.4 148.2 73% 60–80 ✓
Ball State @ Miami (OH) +9.3 150.2 83% 66–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.