And then my good friend Shaggy says "Come spend some time, family" "44/876" -- Shaggy & Sting
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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73–16 on winners spread MAE 8.4 89 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas +24.6 149.9 99% 58–88 ✓
Kansas @ St. John's -4.0 175.3 36% 95–75 ✓
South Carolina State @ South Florida +11.7 125.9 86% 65–64 ✗
Colgate @ Northeastern +3.1 126.2 61% 69–74 ✓
Charleston @ Furman +12.9 176.0 88% 88–91 ✓
Coppin State @ Cornell +18.0 159.0 95% 77–92 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac -0.4 148.2 49% 69–59 ✓
Rider @ Iona +19.0 138.0 96% 54–80 ✓
Manhattan @ Siena -3.4 133.3 38% 77–72 ✓
Monmouth @ Niagara +5.0 134.5 68% 57–49 ✗
Fairfield @ Canisius -0.7 150.0 47% 74–68 ✓
Rutgers @ Illinois +9.3 134.5 80% 51–86 ✓
Bryant @ Houston +27.3 139.3 99% 44–111 ✓
New Mexico State @ UTEP +3.2 136.4 62% 72–69 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ Louisiana +7.4 143.7 75% 67–80 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia +17.6 114.5 95% 56–57 ✓
Iowa @ Purdue +12.1 172.4 86% 70–77 ✓
Tulsa @ Boise State +13.0 130.5 88% 58–63 ✓
Pepperdine @ UC Santa Barbara +17.9 137.4 95% 74–86 ✓
VMI @ Portland +11.2 138.2 85% 90–82 ✗
North Dakota @ San José State +15.4 142.6 92% 51–76 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Villanova +22.9 142.8 98% 52–81 ✓
Memphis @ Ole Miss -2.0 139.7 43% 63–67 ✗
Harvard @ Massachusetts +6.5 168.5 72% 77–87 ✓
Clemson @ Miami +0.7 144.9 53% 75–80 ✓
Robert Morris @ Milwaukee +5.5 138.9 69% 69–77 ✓
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis -12.6 111.2 13% 78–45 ✓
Nebraska @ Indiana +17.5 151.1 94% 55–68 ✓
Marquette @ Wisconsin +16.2 138.6 93% 76–89 ✓
San Diego State @ Michigan +7.2 116.1 74% 58–72 ✓
Winthrop @ Coastal Carolina +4.2 151.2 65% 64–74 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Loyola Maryland +14.5 129.4 91% 55–61 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Indiana State +2.5 155.5 59% 68–69 ✓
Binghamton @ Boston University +15.1 134.4 91% 63–68 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne +0.6 143.0 52% 57–71 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Omaha -12.0 144.0 14% 92–81 ✓
Tennessee @ Colorado -6.2 148.6 29% 69–54 ✓
Yale @ Auburn +19.4 148.4 96% 64–86 ✓
UT Martin @ Western Illinois +18.8 143.5 96% 64–81 ✓
Georgia State @ Mercer +3.9 151.8 64% 77–83 ✓
Bucknell @ Hofstra +21.1 159.7 97% 69–88 ✓
Alcorn State @ Tulane +2.7 133.0 60% 64–85 ✓
North Carolina Central @ UNC Asheville +7.0 124.7 74% 66–82 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Evansville -0.5 137.9 48% 51–59 ✗
Rhode Island @ Providence +5.4 132.6 69% 52–66 ✓
Holy Cross @ La Salle +14.1 136.4 90% 65–84 ✓
George Washington @ Charlotte +6.8 133.2 73% 79–86 ✓
Maine @ Columbia +14.3 135.7 90% 66–77 ✓
Louisville @ NC State -1.0 148.0 46% 73–68 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech +14.5 138.8 91% 80–61 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Dayton +17.3 118.8 94% 41–79 ✓
Delaware State @ Longwood +21.9 128.6 98% 58–78 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Bradley +3.4 130.5 62% 55–80 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ East Carolina +3.1 145.2 61% 52–62 ✓
Northwestern State @ UL Monroe +16.1 154.0 93% 71–84 ✓
William & Mary @ Davidson +23.6 136.9 98% 46–70 ✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State +10.1 141.4 82% 75–85 ✓
Saint Francis @ Ohio +10.2 148.5 82% 75–78 ✓
Little Rock @ Arkansas +26.7 145.6 99% 78–93 ✓
BYU @ Missouri State -0.8 144.1 47% 74–68 ✓
Grambling @ UConn +31.7 145.0 100% 59–88 ✓
Montana State @ Sacramento State -7.7 143.1 24% 68–66 ✓
Army @ Air Force +7.4 125.0 75% 58–76 ✓
Radford @ West Virginia +12.3 122.4 87% 51–67 ✓
Jackson State @ Illinois State +10.5 148.7 83% 61–55 ✗
Drexel @ Princeton +7.8 151.7 76% 79–81 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ DePaul -0.2 156.5 49% 68–64 ✓
Campbell @ VCU +6.1 100.4 71% 61–65 ✓
McNeese @ Wyoming +30.1 138.8 100% 58–79 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Abilene Christian +24.0 148.1 99% 65–98 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Colorado State +6.8 140.1 73% 58–74 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Temple +6.3 140.4 72% 72–81 ✓
Central Connecticut @ New Hampshire +19.8 135.0 96% 45–67 ✓
Syracuse @ Florida State +13.0 165.9 88% 63–60 ✗
Buffalo @ St. Bonaventure +5.4 159.0 69% 65–68 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Lehigh +0.1 136.8 50% 81–75 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Baylor +33.1 150.4 100% 54–99 ✓
Toledo @ Michigan State +15.2 140.3 92% 68–81 ✓
Southern Utah @ Idaho -16.3 160.5 7% 81–75 ✓
Tennessee State @ Chicago State +7.9 141.4 76% 49–59 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Santa Clara +12.1 158.2 86% 78–75 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas State +15.3 134.3 92% 82–95 ✓
American University @ Howard +16.8 155.6 94% 56–90 ✓
USC @ Washington State +0.7 140.4 52% 63–61 ✗
Western Carolina @ South Carolina Upstate +3.8 145.6 64% 78–73 ✗
Vanderbilt @ SMU -2.2 133.6 42% 72–84 ✗
Norfolk State @ Hampton -3.3 139.3 38% 57–58 ✗
UAB @ Saint Louis +3.7 153.6 63% 77–72 ✗
Wagner @ Stony Brook -3.8 136.2 36% 78–49 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.