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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–21 on winners spread MAE 10.8 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Eastern Kentucky @ Western Kentucky	+6.2	159.7	71%	80–85	✓
Stetson @ Florida International	+12.2	124.9	87%	65–72	✓
UMass Lowell @ Merrimack	+1.5	117.0	55%	61–57	✗
Cal State Northridge @ Fresno State	+13.1	113.4	88%	43–61	✓
High Point @ Elon	+2.7	140.8	60%	83–77	✗
Old Dominion @ George Mason	+14.7	125.3	91%	60–50	✗
Loyola Marymount @ Long Beach State	+1.8	154.4	56%	77–74	✗
Duquesne @ Marshall	+12.9	169.1	88%	71–72	✓
Dartmouth @ Florida Gulf Coast	+5.4	144.5	69%	68–78	✓
Youngstown State @ Green Bay	+1.5	131.4	55%	82–58	✗
Southern @ Akron	+5.4	129.8	69%	62–79	✓
Alabama @ Gonzaga	+4.3	156.6	65%	91–82	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Murray State	+10.8	124.4	84%	87–93	✓
Portland State @ Weber State	+23.2	123.5	98%	69–80	✓
Montana @ Northern Colorado	+15.6	140.0	92%	75–78	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State	-1.8	126.0	43%	73–70	✓
Oral Roberts @ Houston Christian	-3.2	140.7	39%	85–67	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Grand Canyon	+26.5	136.9	99%	44–91	✓
Pacific @ Cal State Fullerton	+9.1	131.2	80%	57–66	✓
South Alabama @ Jacksonville State	+2.8	137.8	60%	74–64	✗
Iowa State @ Creighton	+0.7	135.9	53%	64–58	✗
Southern Miss @ Southern Illinois	+14.3	126.1	90%	41–66	✓
UNLV @ San Francisco	+18.7	130.5	96%	62–83	✓
Northwestern @ Maryland	-3.4	142.4	38%	67–61	✓
Fairfield @ Niagara	+8.3	131.8	77%	81–71	✗
Monmouth @ Canisius	-10.0	142.6	18%	79–65	✓
Kennesaw State @ Wofford	+9.5	141.7	81%	62–88	✓
Hartford @ St. Francis Brooklyn	+1.6	145.1	56%	68–55	✗
UMBC @ Delaware	+4.5	157.9	66%	60–70	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ UCF	+18.5	144.4	95%	45–81	✓
Georgetown @ South Carolina	+10.8	142.6	84%	67–80	✓
Minnesota @ Mississippi State	+9.8	126.7	81%	81–76	✗
Richmond @ Northern Iowa	+0.2	156.0	51%	60–52	✗
Sacred Heart @ Brown	+10.6	140.5	83%	66–79	✓
NJIT @ Lafayette	+1.0	127.0	54%	90–86	✗
North Florida @ Florida Atlantic	+6.8	152.5	73%	41–76	✓
Detroit Mercy @ UIC	+4.0	149.2	64%	64–56	✗
Denver @ Texas State	+11.7	139.5	86%	58–71	✓
Marist @ Rider	+3.0	135.5	61%	79–67	✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan	+14.1	147.0	90%	90–73	✗
Siena @ Saint Peter's	+16.4	133.5	93%	60–58	✗
Western Illinois @ Central Michigan	-13.1	146.9	12%	97–70	✓
Valparaiso @ Western Michigan	-2.8	145.8	40%	71–60	✓
Belmont @ Samford	-5.9	157.8	29%	85–73	✓
St. Thomas @ Drake	+9.6	154.2	81%	64–74	✓
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech	-2.0	155.5	43%	79–62	✓
Arizona @ Oregon State	-20.7	145.0	3%	90–65	✓
Cal Poly @ San Diego	+15.2	119.1	92%	51–52	✓
VMI @ Seattle U	+11.4	146.6	85%	89–82	✗
SE Louisiana @ Troy	+9.9	141.9	82%	72–68	✗
Chattanooga @ Lipscomb	-1.3	142.0	45%	85–64	✓
Xavier @ Oklahoma State	+5.3	125.8	69%	77–71	✗
California @ Utah	+14.6	137.3	91%	58–66	✓
Kansas State @ Wichita State	+9.4	124.8	80%	65–59	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.