Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +9 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -10.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -7.5 (+1.5) | 133.4 (-10.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -4.4 (+4.6) | 129.4 (-6.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -8.0 (+1.0) | 136.6 (-13.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -8.2 (+0.8) | 135.0 (-12.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | PAC 85 – 73 CSUF |
| Dec 1, 2024 | PAC 64 – 55 CSUF |
| Dec 21, 2023 | CSUF 67 – 56 PAC |
| Nov 19, 2022 | CSUF 94 – 91 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 3-11 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#124) | -1.8 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#140) | -1.94 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#115) | -2.65 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#196) | 0.333 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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