Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PAC -150 CSUF +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +3 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -19.2 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -8.6 (-11.6) | 151.8 (+33.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -13.6 (-16.6) | 156.6 (+28.4) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -15.6 (-18.6) | 159.2 (+25.8) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -15.3 (-18.3) | 160.0 (+25.0) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | PAC 85 – 73 CSUF |
| Dec 1, 2024 | PAC 64 – 55 CSUF |
| Dec 21, 2023 | CSUF 67 – 56 PAC |
| Dec 5, 2021 | CSUF 66 – 57 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-10 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#41) | -2.0 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#47) | 0.78 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#59) | 0.98 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#173) | 0.688 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 4.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 14.4% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 79.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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