Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF +225 PAC -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +12 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -8.8 (-20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -2.3 (-14.3) | 146.6 (+11.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -2.6 (-14.6) | 140.9 (+17.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -2.7 (-14.7) | 145.5 (+12.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -3.5 (-15.5) | 147.8 (+10.2) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | PAC 64 – 55 CSUF |
| Dec 21, 2023 | CSUF 67 – 56 PAC |
| Nov 19, 2022 | CSUF 94 – 91 PAC |
| Dec 5, 2021 | CSUF 66 – 57 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#230) | -1.5 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#244) | -0.13 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#237) | -0.06 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#144) | 0.542 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.1% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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