Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -210 CSUF +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +9 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -4.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -2.3 (+6.7) | 133.5 (-14.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -2.9 (+6.1) | 135.7 (-16.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -3.7 (+5.3) | 136.5 (-17.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -3.1 (+5.9) | 134.8 (-15.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | PAC 85 – 73 CSUF |
| Dec 21, 2023 | CSUF 67 – 56 PAC |
| Nov 19, 2022 | CSUF 94 – 91 PAC |
| Dec 5, 2021 | CSUF 66 – 57 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 1-19 |
| Home | 5-10 | 4-11 |
| Away | 2-13 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#278) | -5.1 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#267) | 0.19 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#259) | 0.26 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#257) | 0.513 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 61.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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