Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Metro Conference · Koessler Athletic Center · December 5, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread MONM -5.5 Away covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money CAN +205 / MONM -250
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAN win
Actual MONM +14 144 Lost
Massey MONM -10.4 (-3.6) — —
Massey Totals — 142.9 (+1.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 2% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 0% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MONM -7.2 (-6.8) 142.9 (+1.1) 29% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MONM -9.7 (-4.3) 143.0 (+1.0) 20% ✓
Baseline ML MONM -9.6 (-4.4) 141.6 (+2.4) 21% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MONM -9.4 (-4.6) 142.9 (+1.1) 24% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 28, 2022 MONM 72 – 67 CAN
Dec 28, 2020 MONM 97 – 69 CAN
Dec 27, 2020 MONM 84 – 66 CAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAN MONM
Overall 11-21 21-13
Conference 7-13 11-9
Home 9-5 9-5
Away 1-15 10-7
Neutral 1-1 2-1
Last 5 1-4 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.3 68.6
Avg Pts Against 72.5 67.3
Massey -6.6 (#287) 9.4 (#38)
Bradley-Terry -1.98 (#318) 2.98 (#16)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.19 (#327) 3.89 (#28)
RPI 0.433 (#275) 0.642 (#24)
Shooting & Four Factors CAN MONM
FG% 37.6% 44.8%
3PT% 31.0% 39.8%
REB / G 34.6 37.3
OREB / G 12.4 8.6
AST / TO 1.10 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.5% 51.0%
TOV% 16.7% 18.2%
ORB% 30.3% 26.7%
FT Rate 21.9% 27.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.0% 43.4%
Opp TOV% 17.6% 15.6%
DRB% 71.8% 74.2%
Opp FT Rate 24.0% 25.6%

Game Analysis

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