Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +9 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -4.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -2.1 (-11.1) | 154.9 (+18.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -2.9 (-11.9) | 157.1 (+15.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -2.7 (-11.7) | 154.4 (+18.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -1.9 (-10.9) | 152.2 (+20.8) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 85 ALA |
| Dec 17, 2022 | GONZ 100 – 90 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-1 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 20.7 (#4) | 16.7 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#28) | 2.43 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.68 (#13) | 3.21 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#65) | 0.735 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.5% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 43.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.6% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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