Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -125 GONZ +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +10 | 190 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -4.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (+29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -2.3 (-12.3) | 159.1 (+30.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ALA -5.2 (-15.2) | 165.3 (+24.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | ALA -4.8 (-14.8) | 159.8 (+30.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -4.3 (-14.3) | 158.3 (+31.7) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 85 ALA |
| Dec 5, 2021 | ALA 91 – 82 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 14-2 |
| Home | 15-0 | 15-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 85.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#6) | 13.3 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.24 (#4) | 2.53 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.10 (#3) | 3.43 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.690 (#3) | 0.655 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 48.8 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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