Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Over |
| Money | ALA +3500 GONZ -50000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +10 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -9.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -6.0 (-4.0) | 162.4 (+17.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -5.7 (-4.3) | 159.5 (+20.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -6.9 (-3.1) | 155.2 (+24.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -4.8 (-5.2) | 153.9 (+26.1) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2022 | GONZ 100 – 90 ALA |
| Dec 5, 2021 | ALA 91 – 82 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 16-2 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#21) | 24.1 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#25) | 3.57 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.52 (#15) | 5.86 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.693 (#11) | 0.632 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 53.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 46.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 38.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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