Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +17 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -6.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -6.5 (+10.5) | 132.6 (+8.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -4.4 (+12.6) | 134.4 (+6.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -4.8 (+12.2) | 135.0 (+6.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -5.1 (+11.9) | 133.9 (+7.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#231) | -4.3 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#243) | -0.32 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#244) | -0.73 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#216) | 0.459 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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