Betting Lines
| Spread | ORU -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORU +18 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | ORU -1.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORU -6.0 (-12.0) | 150.5 (+1.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORU -1.0 (-17.0) | 142.2 (+9.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORU -0.5 (-17.5) | 141.4 (+10.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORU -3.8 (-14.2) | 141.2 (+10.8) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#333) | -4.1 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#298) | -1.35 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.84 (#318) | -1.10 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#231) | 0.469 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.3% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 24.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.44 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 28.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 12.1% |
Game Analysis
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