Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +25 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -15.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -11.1 (+13.9) | 124.5 (-17.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -10.7 (+14.3) | 130.7 (-23.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -11.0 (+14.0) | 131.2 (-24.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -11.0 (+14.0) | 125.4 (-18.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#181) | -10.3 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#153) | -0.41 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#182) | -1.30 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#161) | 0.468 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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