Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Allen Arena · December 5, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UTC -7.0 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Over
Money LIP +205 / UTC -250
Model Predictions
Spread Total LIP win
Actual UTC +21 149 Lost
Massey UTC -1.4 (-19.6)
Massey Totals 143.3 (+5.7)
Bradley-Terry 49%
Weighted B-T 33%
Baseline Plus ML UTC -2.9 (-18.1) 141.3 (+7.7) 36%
Baseline ML LIP -0.3 (-21.3) 145.0 (+4.0) 46%
Baseline Tuned ML LIP -0.2 (-21.2) 144.4 (+4.6) 47%
Efficiency Plus ML UTC -5.2 (-15.8) 142.8 (+6.2) 19%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 4, 2024 LIP 8062 UTC
Nov 29, 2023 LIP 8268 UTC
Nov 23, 2022 LIP 7266 UTC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LIP UTC
Neutral 2-0 3-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Massey 1.8 (#141) 8.8 (#48)
Bradley-Terry 0.86 (#107) 2.02 (#48)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.98 (#113) 3.02 (#45)
RPI 0.512 (#153) 0.602 (#46)
Shooting & Four Factors LIP UTC
FG% 52.7% 45.6%
3PT% 46.3% 31.5%
REB / G 33.8 36.5
OREB / G 4.3 12.8
AST / TO 0.96 1.16
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 61.2% 51.3%
TOV% 23.8% 17.9%
ORB% 16.6% 40.1%
FT Rate 34.0% 18.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.0% 45.6%
Opp TOV% 13.5% 18.9%
DRB% 70.0% 67.6%
Opp FT Rate 20.0% 13.1%

Game Analysis

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