Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | DRKE -2500 STMN +1150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | DRKE -10.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -10.9 (-0.9) | 142.7 (-4.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -8.5 (+1.5) | 149.9 (-11.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -8.2 (+1.8) | 149.0 (-11.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -8.9 (+1.1) | 145.7 (-7.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-6 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 78.2 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#62) | 2.5 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#207) | -0.29 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#179) | -0.44 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#169) | 0.456 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 12.1% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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