Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | WMU +205 VAL -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +11 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -3.7 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -2.2 (-8.8) | 146.3 (-15.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -1.9 (-9.1) | 146.6 (-15.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -2.1 (-8.9) | 145.7 (-14.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -0.9 (-10.1) | 146.3 (-15.3) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | VAL 84 – 55 WMU |
| Dec 20, 2024 | VAL 76 – 73 WMU |
| Nov 13, 2022 | VAL 81 – 65 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 6-12 |
| Home | 4-10 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-13 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#328) | -0.8 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#166) | -1.13 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#203) | -1.25 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#137) | 0.410 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 5.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 25.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 16.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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