Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -205 WMU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +29 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -2.7 (+26.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -3.5 (+25.5) | 138.1 (+0.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -2.4 (+26.6) | 136.2 (+2.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -2.2 (+26.8) | 137.3 (+1.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -2.7 (+26.3) | 140.2 (-1.2) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2024 | VAL 76 – 73 WMU |
| Nov 13, 2022 | VAL 81 – 65 WMU |
| Dec 5, 2021 | VAL 71 – 60 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#294) | -4.8 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#296) | -0.81 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.26 (#317) | -1.24 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#327) | 0.455 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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