Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -200 WMU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -7.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -2.9 (+13.1) | 141.6 (+4.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -2.8 (+13.2) | 140.9 (+5.1) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | VAL 84 – 55 WMU |
| Dec 20, 2024 | VAL 76 – 73 WMU |
| Dec 5, 2021 | VAL 71 – 60 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-12 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L5 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#153) | 4.8 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#183) | -0.34 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#182) | -0.19 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#28) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 6.6% | 5.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.9% | 25.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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