Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +18 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -14.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -10.5 (+7.5) | 124.4 (-20.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -10.6 (+7.4) | 126.8 (-22.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -11.6 (+6.4) | 125.8 (-21.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -10.9 (+7.1) | 126.3 (-22.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | CSUN 89 – 87 FRES |
| Dec 8, 2022 | FRES 65 – 56 CSUN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 3-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 4-11 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 60.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#115) | -5.4 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#95) | -0.11 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#89) | 0.13 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#138) | 0.471 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 82.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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