Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -1400 CSUN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +9 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -9.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -11.4 (-2.4) | 128.3 (-7.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -7.5 (+1.5) | 130.8 (-9.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -7.5 (+1.5) | 130.1 (-9.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -6.8 (+2.2) | 128.8 (-7.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | CSUN 89 – 87 FRES |
| Dec 5, 2021 | FRES 61 – 43 CSUN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-16 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#161) | -3.4 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#248) | -2.90 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#185) | -4.24 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#196) | 0.321 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 24.3% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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