Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | CSUN -170 FRES +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +2 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -3.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUN -0.1 (+1.9) | 147.2 (+28.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -1.6 (+3.6) | 145.5 (+30.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -1.9 (+3.9) | 146.4 (+29.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -2.5 (+4.5) | 148.1 (+27.9) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2022 | FRES 65 – 56 CSUN |
| Dec 5, 2021 | FRES 61 – 43 CSUN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUN | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#287) | 0.6 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#205) | -0.16 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#211) | -0.20 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#248) | 0.479 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUN | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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