Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +6 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | ELON -2.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -1.2 (-7.2) | 145.7 (+14.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -3.0 (-9.0) | 141.4 (+18.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -1.6 (-7.6) | 140.2 (+19.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -1.4 (-7.4) | 141.7 (+18.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | HPU 84 – 70 ELON |
| Nov 28, 2020 | ELON 76 – 75 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#322) | -6.0 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.01 (#339) | -1.68 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.46 (#341) | -1.92 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#263) | 0.384 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.1% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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