Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | OKST -170 XAV +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | OKST -5.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -4.5 (-10.5) | 136.2 (+11.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -4.4 (-10.4) | 134.4 (+13.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -4.8 (-10.8) | 134.9 (+13.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -4.0 (-10.0) | 137.1 (+10.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 16-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W2 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#37) | 9.3 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#75) | 2.74 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#70) | 4.25 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#75) | 0.669 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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