Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | UNI -125 RICH +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +8 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -0.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-44.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -0.6 (-7.4) | 149.4 (-37.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -1.6 (-9.6) | 152.8 (-40.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -1.2 (-9.2) | 151.8 (-39.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -1.1 (-9.1) | 150.8 (-38.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | UNI 78 – 73 RICH |
| Nov 12, 2022 | RICH 68 – 55 UNI |
| Dec 9, 2020 | RICH 78 – 68 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#199) | 3.9 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#267) | 0.22 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#241) | 0.78 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#183) | 0.514 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 18.2% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 82.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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