Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -280 SELA +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -9.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -7.6 (-11.6) | 145.1 (-5.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -5.9 (-9.9) | 146.1 (-6.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -6.8 (-10.8) | 144.0 (-4.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -7.6 (-11.6) | 143.7 (-3.7) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2022 | TROY 77 – 71 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-1 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#256) | -8.6 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#226) | -2.91 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#237) | -4.48 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#203) | 0.313 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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