Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SELA +275 TROY -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SELA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -5.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -4.1 (-1.9) | 146.9 (+1.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -6.3 (+0.3) | 143.1 (+4.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -3.4 (-2.6) | 146.8 (+1.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -4.5 (-1.5) | 145.8 (+2.2) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2021 | SELA 72 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SELA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#239) | 6.9 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#234) | 0.43 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#255) | 1.02 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#268) | 0.507 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SELA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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