Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -12.0 Push |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | SAM +475 BEL -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +12 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -5.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -7.2 (-4.8) | 152.1 (+5.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -3.6 (-8.4) | 153.8 (+4.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -4.7 (-7.3) | 152.8 (+5.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -5.1 (-6.9) | 152.9 (+5.1) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | SAM 99 – 93 BEL |
| Dec 22, 2022 | BEL 79 – 56 SAM |
| Dec 5, 2020 | SAM 96 – 83 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#192) | 10.5 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#77) | 1.69 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#99) | 2.72 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#117) | 0.628 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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