Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Pete Hanna Center · December 16, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SAM -3.5 Home covered
O/U 167.5 Over
Money SAM -175 / BEL +138
Model Predictions
Spread Total SAM win
Actual SAM +6 192 Won
Massey SAM -6.2 (-0.2) — —
Massey Totals — 172.1 (+19.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 64% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 74% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SAM -5.2 (+0.8) 163.1 (+28.9) 72% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SAM -5.3 (+0.7) 159.7 (+32.3) 70% ✓
Baseline ML SAM -5.4 (+0.6) 161.1 (+30.9) 73% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SAM -5.0 (+1.0) 164.8 (+27.2) 75% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2022 BEL 79 – 56 SAM
Dec 5, 2021 BEL 85 – 73 SAM
Dec 5, 2020 SAM 96 – 83 BEL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SAM BEL
Overall 29-6 20-13
Conference 15-3 12-8
Home 18-0 12-2
Away 8-5 6-9
Neutral 3-1 2-2
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 84.5 77.4
Avg Pts Against 74.9 76.1
Massey 2.1 (#136) 0.7 (#161)
Bradley-Terry 0.67 (#126) 1.12 (#90)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.08 (#111) 1.23 (#104)
RPI 0.508 (#163) 0.543 (#119)
Shooting & Four Factors SAM BEL
FG% 46.0% 48.7%
3PT% 39.8% 38.3%
REB / G 38.8 34.0
OREB / G 13.0 7.7
AST / TO 1.13 1.12
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.2% 55.8%
TOV% 21.7% 18.1%
ORB% 35.1% 23.3%
FT Rate 27.9% 20.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 52.0%
Opp TOV% 21.8% 15.8%
DRB% 67.8% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 30.4% 18.0%

Game Analysis

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