Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -175 BEL +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +6 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -6.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -5.2 (+0.8) | 163.1 (+28.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -5.3 (+0.7) | 159.7 (+32.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -5.4 (+0.6) | 161.1 (+30.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.0 (+1.0) | 164.8 (+27.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | BEL 79 – 56 SAM |
| Dec 5, 2021 | BEL 85 – 73 SAM |
| Dec 5, 2020 | SAM 96 – 83 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 18-0 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#136) | 0.7 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#126) | 1.12 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#111) | 1.23 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#163) | 0.543 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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